IVRM Services

Project Finance and Risk Analysis

The varied and contingent nature of project finance and taxation can shift value and risk in a manner difficult for static cash flow models to fully anticipate.

With IVRM, we build a dynamic mining financial risk model to pull apart a multi-layered financing and taxation package to show how cash flow is distributed between stakeholders across a range of future business environments.

Our analysis provides insight into how different combinations of debt, alternative finance, and equity impacts future operations and the level of cash flow risk.  We pair a return calculation with a risk analysis to confirm for our clients that their investment is not over-leveraged and there is a consistent risk-return relationship across financing sources.

We have the skills and experience to help you make sense of:

  • Senior and mezzanine debt
  • Dilution from loan covenant breach
  • Variable rate streams
  • Sliding-scale royalties
  • Forward sale agreements
  • Convertible debt
  • Warrants and options
  • Windfall taxes
  • Profit-sharing agreements
  • Offtake agreements
  • Many other tailored financing arrangements
Early closure probabilities for various financing

Early closure probabilities with different financing structures

Early closure probabilities for various financing
Risk-return variation for different debt-stream financing combinations.

Risk-return variation with different debt-stream mix

Risk-return variation for different debt-stream financing combinations.
Over-leveraged risk-return profile for project financing.

Over-leveraged risk-return profile from recent financing with private equity + stream company

Over-leveraged risk-return profile for project financing.